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Subject: US dollar

The United States dollar (sign: $; code: USD) is the unit of currency of the United States. The U.S. dollar is normally abbreviated as the dollar sign, $, or as USD or US$ to distinguish it from other dollar-denominated currencies and from others that use the $ symbol. It is divided into 100 cents (200 half-cents prior to 1857).

The U.S. dollar is the currency most used in international transactions. Several countries use it as their official currency, and in many others it is the de facto currency. [Wikipedia: 2009]

Government spending:

US fiscal deficit soars six-fold

Obama administration falls off the cliff

This “Obama Deficit” is about six times the fiscal deficit for the year 2003 and at the highest level in American history.

The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds accounts for Q2 2009, estimates the US fiscal deficit (on an annual basis) at $1,294.9 billion.

Uncontrolled spending by the US government and the lack of any clear plan as how these outlays will eventually be financed has resulted in the world fleeing dollars.

Foreign trade:

Falling US dollars and exports

Dollar falls after nine-eleven ...

When the US fiscal deficit grows rapidly and Americans are reluctant to save, more dollars in foreign hands are needed to absorb the necessary issuance of government bonds. Should the trade deficit begin to shrink, foreigners will have less dollars to finance the United States. The combination of deficit spending, low domestic saving, and a slowing in the growth of the trade deficit makes inflation more likely.

How long will it take?

Working off the US trade deficit

International trade

Foreigners hold $16.8 trillion in US financial assets as a result of selling more goods to Americans than they buy from them. Since the ‘deficit’ is all in dollars, the United States has no problem in ‘paying it off’.

One way this ‘deficit’ could ‘go away’ would be for US exporters to sell $16.8 trillion more in goods abroad than Americans import from abroad.

Another would be for foreigners to use their dollar balances to buy non-financial assets in the United States, like real estate.

Still another way, would be for Congress to engage in deficit spending to a degree that the dollar inflates and becomes worthless.

The Obama administration may be moving towards the last alternative.

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2010-08-12 16:02