Conservative Economics

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Subject: unemployment

Unemployment occurs when a person is available and willing to work but currently without work. The prevalence of unemployment is usually measured using the unemployment rate, which is defined as the percentage of those in the labor force who are unemployed. The unemployment rate is also used in economic studies and economic indices such as the United States’ Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators as a measure of the state of macroeconomics.
Keynesian economics emphasizes unemployment resulting from insufficient effective demand for goods and services in the economy (cyclical unemployment). Others point to structural problems and inefficiencies inherent in labour markets; structural unemployment involves mismatches between demand and supply of laborers with the necessary skillset, sometimes induced by disruptive technologies or globalisation. Classical or neoclassical economics tends to reject these explanations, and focuses more on rigidities imposed on the labor market from the outside, such as unionization, minimum wage laws, taxes, and other regulations that may discourage the hiring of workers (classical unemployment). Yet others see unemployment as largely due to voluntary choices by the unemployed and the time it takes to find a new job (frictional unemployment). Behavioral economics highlights phenomena such as sticky wages and efficiency wages which may lead to unemployment.
There is also disagreement on how exactly to measure unemployment. Different countries experience different levels of unemployment; traditionally, the United States experiences lower unemployment levels than countries in the European Union,[2] although there is variant there, with countries like the UK and Denmark outperforming Italy and France and it also changes over time (e.g. the Great Depression) throughout economic cycles. (Wikipedia Feb 2010)

Social change:

Thriving without a credit card

The Crash of 2008 is restructuring the availability of consumer credit as well as household spending and saving habits.

Restricted availability of consumer credit and a greater propensity of households to save before spending, may result in less use of credit cards and smaller mortgages. A return, even partial, to saving habits of the 1950s could stimulate economic recovery.

The popular Dave Ramsey radio and TV shows suggest that a societal change in this direction is at least possible. Lower levels of personal debt would boost the economy and make people happier.

Deflation Economics

When cash is an investment strategy

Sometimes even cash is not a good idea. "Money to burn" showing Confederate Dollars.

Deflation is said to occur when general price levels fall. The last important example of general deflation in the United States occurred during the Great Depression. Federal Reserve officials and central bankers around the world often regard deflation as a greater risk than inflation. Under the Obama administration, US central bankers are now wary of both deflation and inflation.

Stagflation watch

When will inflation kick in?

Forecasting when inflation will kick in is impossible, because the political situation is so uncertain and conflicted.

The lack of fiscal restraint of President Obama on the healthcare issue, the ’stimulus bill’, and other ‘progressive’ legislation in the pipeline, combined with the jobs-firsts-inflation-last attitude of Fed Chairman Bernanke — leave little room to doubt that sooner or later the United States is likely to enter the realm of double-digit inflation.

Inflation is likely be the final and deadliest blow to the retirement dreams of many Baby Boomers. When the stock market crashes, one can hope for a recovery some day. With inflation, the losses are permanent and final.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Accelerating to a buyback-option blowout

By Q1 2006, stock buybacks had multiplied to five times the level of 2000. Buybacks grew by 25% in 2005, with corporate profits after taxes increasing only 5.5%. At these rates, buybacks will exceed after-tax profits by 2009.
More ...

Securities Analysis

Are investors being misled?

Mutual funds are sold primarily on the basis of 'performance' measured by historical 'total return'.The famous Morningstar 'star' rating system is based on 'total return', in this case 'risk-adjusted total return' relative to funds of the same asset category.
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US Politics

What is the future of private pension plans?

Between 1999 and 2002, US private pension funds lost US$ 1.2 trillion in value. It would almost seem that pension fund managers had been speculating with retirement money, attempting to beat each others' short-term performance statistics, with little interest in safeguarding the assets of plan beneficiaries. More ...

US equities

Sarbanes-Oxley and the shortage of equities

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, by discouraging companies to go public, will exacerbate the shortage of equities, with a negative effect on the US stock market, although this was not the intent of its authors. Poorly drafted, ill-conceived, and unfair this law does little to protect investors.
More ...

US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

What Is ‘International Liquidity’?

It used to be that the term 'international liquidity' meant the relative amount of resources available to a nation's monetary authorities that could be used to settle a balance of payments deficit. In the days of the gold standard, this would mean access to gold that could be used to redeem a nation's currency held by foreigners. More ...

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2010-08-12 16:02