Conservative Economics

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Subject: Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation is also an erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the Consumer Price Index) over time.
Inflation can have positive and negative effects on an economy. Negative effects of inflation include a decrease in the real value of money and other monetary items over time; uncertainty about future inflation may discourage investment and saving, and high inflation may lead to shortages of goods if consumers begin hoarding out of concern that prices will increase in the future. Positive effects include a mitigation of economic recessions, and debt relief by reducing the real level of debt.
Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are caused by an excessive growth of the money supply. Views on which factors determine low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or moderate inflation may be attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods and services, or changes in available supplies such as during scarcities, as well as to growth in the money supply. However, the consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster than the rate of economic growth.
Today, most mainstream economists favor a low steady rate of inflation. Low (as opposed to zero or negative) inflation may reduce the severity of economic recessions by enabling the labor market to adjust more quickly in a downturn, and reduce the risk that a liquidity trap prevents monetary policy from stabilizing the economy. The task of keeping the rate of inflation low and stable is usually given to monetary authorities. Generally, these monetary authorities are the central banks that control the size of the money supply through the setting of interest rates, through open market operations, and through the setting of banking reserve requirements. (Wikipedia Jan 2010)

This is a 'game-changer'

Economic recovery may wait until 2016

Economic systems and institutions tend to gradually corrode and become increasingly inefficient and unstable

The current economic crisis, which started with the market crash of 2008, is a ‘game-changer’ that requires effective leadership with a firm grasp of economic reality and a willingness to introduce sensible bipartisan reforms in many areas of financial markets.

Unfortunately, these conditions are unlikely to be met before 2016. In the meantime, history suggests that there are likely to be many false rallies and dashed hopes before true recovery begins.

Commonsense Economics:

The Inefficient Market Hypothesis

The dead Efficient Market Hypothesis has left behind much harmful junk in financial space

Eventually, at some point, without an efficient market, common stocks become mere baseball cards.

Sooner or later, some Baby Boomer, pressed to pay his bills in retirement, will find that one can’t live off the dividends of common stock and that when everyone is trying to cash out their holdings at the same time, market prices plunge to levels that seemed inconceivable for generations. But it will simply be the cost of allowing an inefficient market to flourish for so long.

This article discusses the concept of inefficient markets and the practical consequences.

Deflation Economics

When cash is an investment strategy

Sometimes even cash is not a good idea. "Money to burn" showing Confederate Dollars.

Deflation is said to occur when general price levels fall. The last important example of general deflation in the United States occurred during the Great Depression. Federal Reserve officials and central bankers around the world often regard deflation as a greater risk than inflation. Under the Obama administration, US central bankers are now wary of both deflation and inflation.

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2010-08-12 16:02