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How long can Iran continue to develop atomic weapons to threaten Israel before the Mideast will explode into war?
War in this oil region is bound to roil financial markets. The human consequences will be horrific and countless thousands of innocents will be killed.
Does the "end of days" portend war?
The weak military posture of the Obama administration has encouraged Iran to continue its nuclear weapon program.
Few think that the US and the rest of the world will take military action and change Iran’s behavior.
The brutal Iran regime will kill and torture its own people to stay in power.
Whether Israel has been right or wrong in the past, it now faces decisions for self preservation.
The hatreds in the region have festered for half a century, or more.
Iran at the United Nations
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vilified Israel before the United Nations on September 23, 2009, claiming that the Holocaust was the opinion of “just a few”, indicating his preference for Barack Obama over George Bush.
Talk of war is in the news.
Representatives of only a few nations walked out in protest.
Ahmadinejad has already announced that Iran’s foreign policy calls for the annihilation of Israel.
Ahmadinejad announces the “End of Days”
In winding up his speech to the UN in New York on September 23, 2009, the President of Iran said,
And the last point that I’d like to make. Dear friends and colleagues; The world is in continuous change and evolution. The promised destiny for mankind is the establishment of the humane pure life. Will come a time when justice will prevail across the globe and every single human being will enjoy respect and dignity. That will be the time when the Mankind’s path to moral and spiritual perfectness will be opened and his journey to God and the manifestation of the God’s Divine Names will come true.
This man says the Mahdi is already here.
The mankind should excel to represent the God’s “knowledge and wisdom”, His “compassion and benevolence”, His “justice and fairness”, His “power and art”, and His “kindness and forgiveness”. These will all come true under the rule of the Perfect Man, the last Divine Source on earth, Hazrat Mahdi (Peace be upon him); an offspring of the Prophet of Islam, who will re-emerge, and Jesus Christ (Peace be upon him) and other noble men will accompany him in the accomplishment of this, grand universal mission. And this is the belief in Entezar (Awaiting patiently for the Imam to return). Waiting with patience for the rule of goodness and the governance of the Best which is a universal human notion and which is a source of nations’ hope for the betterment of the world.
They will come, and with the help of righteous people and true believers will materialize the man’s long-standing desires for freedom, perfectness, maturity, security and tranquility, peace and beauty. They will come to put an end to war and aggression and present the entire knowledge as well as spirituality and friendship to the whole world. Yes, indeed, the bright future for the mankind will come.
Although these words seem peaceful, in the context of fanatical belief in the imminent “End of Days”, this is hardly the case.
US support of Israel is not assured
Even before the 2008 election, Israelis suspected that Barack Obama was not their friend, pointing to the advisers that he had chosen as indicative of his pro-Palestinian, anti-Israeli bias.
On August 27, 2009, the Jerusalem Post published a poll indicating that only 4% of Israelis saw Obama’s policies as pro-Israel. The majority of Israeli Jews thought that Barack Obama favored the Palestinians.
In contrast, a Gallup Poll on May 1, 2009 indicated that 79% of American Jews approved of Barack Obama, an approval rating among religious groups only surpassed by US Muslims (85%), and far more than US Protestants (58%) or Mormons (45%) favorable towards Obama.
The explanation for the dichotomy between Israelis and US Jews is given by Norman Podhoretz in his recent book, Why are Jews Liberals?
“Liberalism has become the religion of American Jews,” he writes, “even though it conflicts in substance with the Torah . . . [and] the most basic of all Jewish interests — the survival of the Jewish people.”
A brief window
With a pro-Palestinian US President and with Iran about to become a nuclear power, while declaring its intention to wipe Israel from the face of the earth, it would seem that Israel has only a brief window to attack Iran and destroy its nuclear potential, before it is too late.
Under President Bush, the United States had agreed to provide multi-billion dollar funding and technical support to Israel for military purposes — although there is no formal mutual defense pact between the countries.
President Obama is being pressured by his supporters to suspend funding to the Israelis.
Soon, Israel may be alone, without a powerful friend in the US.
War clouds in the Mid-East
With waning US support, it seems that Israel must go it alone and determine what steps it must take to survive the Iranian threat. But this is nothing new.
Iran’s nuclear threat to the existence of Israel and memories of the Holocaust will focus Israeli minds on how best to deal with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his belief in the imminent return of the Twelfth Iman and the End of Days.
The strategy that Israel chooses to deal with Iran will determine whether there will be war or peace in the Mid-East, which in turn will effect worldwide prices of energy and economic conditions in many countries, including the US.
In the US, a spike in the price of oil combined with the looming inflationary effects of the Obama administration’s various “stimulus programs”, will place severe pressure on the US economy.
The technology of war is now in hand. The risk is real. Religiously motivated atomic war may be coming.
Many think that Israel will be forced to strike Iran soon, before the Russians deliver defensive radar systems that would make a conventional attack on Iran’s nuclear installations even more difficult.
However, it is possible that Israelis may decide that a preemptive strike on Iran, using conventional weapons, is not in their best interests.
Should Israel let Iran get the bomb?
Iran’s nuclear facilities are dispersed and buried underground in multiple locations at the extreme outer limits of Israeli air strike capability.
If Israel were to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities using conventional air war techniques, the chances are that, at best, Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons would be postponed only a few years, while Iran would gain justification, in the eyes of many in the world, to attack Israel in return.
Stanley Kubrick said it all in Dr. Strangelove. ‘Mein Fuhrer. I can walk!’ Mad men playing with atomic weapons. Hide!
Furthermore, the Iranian government, facing a divided nation, would have the excuse of war to neutralize the opposition.
Under President Obama, the US will probably not assist Israel in attacking Iran and might even take measures to prevent Israeli action.
Israel, on the other hand, today is said to have the nuclear capability to completely destroy Iran, setting back Iran’s ability to strike Israel by fifty years or so. (It is estimated that Israel has between 70 and 400 nuclear war heads with sophisticated missile delivery systems.)
The problem with a preemptive nuclear strike is that Israel would become a pariah among nations, with more determined enemies. Although it might eliminate Iran as a threat, its global defensive posture might be weaker.
Offense or defense?
So the question facing Israel is this:
If the way to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat for the long term would be a massive nuclear strike on that country, could this be done without antagonizing world opinion?
An extremely risky strategy would be to await an Iranian first strike on Israel, once Iran is known to have nuclear war heads.
Israel is said to have a sophisticated missile defense system that might be even better in 2010. It might be possible for Israel to launch a nuclear counter-strike against Iran, while destroying incoming missiles before they do any damage.
Possible? Unacceptable?
By adopting a nuclear deterrent defensive posture and continuing to put bombs on offensive and defensive missiles, Israel might be able to keep ahead of Iran (it now is said to have a fifty year lead), possibly avoiding war entirely, and, if Iran does attack, have the world on its side as it responds in self-defense.
After all, with an incoming missile from Iran (which would be presumed to have a nuclear war head), why wouldn’t Israel be justified to respond in kind?
This strategy would have the added benefit of postponing any preemptive action against Iran until Barack Obama is out of office.
But if the defense shield fails?
What should the world do? Nothing, allowing Iran to become a nuclear power?
Should Israel attack Iran before it acquires nuclear weapons? Or rely on its own nuclear deterrent? Should the US join Israel in attacking Iran? Or watch from the sidelines?
The problem of Israel has been festering for decades. Will 2010 be the year of decision?
Who can stop this madness? Barack Obama (Nobel Peace Prize Winner)? The United Nations? The Nobel Peace Prize Committee? The European Union? Al Gore (Nobel Peace Prize Winner)?
Are you ready? Where will you hide?
In the meantime, let us all sing these hopeful lyrics from the closing scene of Dr. Strangelove:
We’ll meet again
Don’t know where
Don’t know when
But I know we’ll meet again some sunny day
Tags: 
the playing of the card is the game
the instant iran plays the card,it’s “won”
it will be a disaster for the western world and europe(aka northern saudi arabia) not just israel
whack em now
Double standards from the western governments and Israel. Iran has no problem to make a weapon if it so wishes.
Israel, Germany, Holland and a few other countries have nukes without being told what to do with them so why is Iran any different?
The propaganda machine is on the move again and the stupid public (most of them)are sucking up all the lies from the press who love so much to fuel the fear and control the mids of many by scare tactics.
A war will happen and there’s nothing anyone reading this comments section can do to stop it from happening.
Shame that stupid fools are in charge of who gets killed and who lives.
Any unbiased person can see that extremist Muslim nations are bent on the destruction of Israel as a nation at any cost. They would consider their own death, or annihilation as great heavenly reward and would not be too concerned. They will not hold back from continuing in their endeavor to see this fulfilled. Iranian leadership must be viewed as a cooperate suicide bomber because of the fanatical view that they hold to what they believe are now the ‘End of Days’. To not take their threat to annihilate Israel would be foolishness of the highest order.
Iran has exactly the same right to nuclear technology as everyone else. Funny how it’s always the countries that already have nuclear weopons constantly opposing others from doing the same. There was peace in the middle east before Isreal excisted, Arabs, Jews and Persians all lived happily together before the west went for the oil. The west needs to mind it’s own fucking business and stopping being the world police. Freedom from tyranny both foreign and domestic is the right of all. Remember that.
First of all its time to grow up and start living in the real world. We would have never stepped a foot over there if our world trade centers hadn’t been destoyed and so many innocent lives were lost. That’s originally what started everything. As far as stopping iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, it couldn’t be a better idea. Everyone has the same right unless that right is taken away from them. You wouldn’t let a criminal out of jail and then hand them a weapon as soon as they exit the doors. A felon is not allowed to own a weapon in this country because he is known by the government to not be trust worthy. Do you support gang members obtaining weapons? Most of them haven’t been convicted yet so i guess that means we should just let them obtain any weapons they can because they have that right. Police stop doing your jobs now bcause they all have to right to those weapons. Sounds crazy right? If we thought they would use those weapons for the good of mankind, they would have every right to obtain them. The good of mankind includes having to have war to maintain peace. evil is going to exist whether we like it or not. it has since the beginning of time. the only way to keep peace is to stop evil. If someone was to break into your house and try to hurt your child or spouse and you walked in on it, what would you do? stand back and let them do whatever they wanted because hurting them wasn’t the peaceful thing to do? If you would you need help. Our government and troops are the same thing. The parents to this country that will do anything to protect us. Thank god you live where you live. If we think their going to use those weapons to hurt innocent people we will do anything we can to stop that (promoting peace). Instead of having to go to war with them in the future (still promoting peace) why not “nip it in the bud” and not let them obtain weapons to begin with. As much as America would like to “mind it’s own f*cking business”, we just care to much about the safety of our one and only world to turn our head the other direction. Granted that would be the easiest thing to do, but by all means no real american is a quitter. Please, to all out there that read this please start speaking up for our countries beliefs and morals that we grew so strong on. We need to drown out idiots like these because their obviously still wet behind the ears. Its not just about being a citizen of the United States, but a citizen of this world. If we continue like we do, hope won’t matter because we won’t be around to hope. Weapons like these will destory the world. Putting it in the wrong hands is just asking for it. For america or another innocent country. Speak up, stand for whats right and true. Opinions are out there everywhere you go. Facts are the instincts we undoubtably have. Protect your country like you would protect your family and home.
what would have been better. WWII, loss of millions of lives, billions dollars, or elimination adolf hitler before he came to power.. Same goes for Iran, and this moron called ahmadi nejat. THE HISTORY IS ABOUT TO MAKE A NEW TURN BEFORE OUR EYES.
Nobel Peace Prize to Barrack Obama bodes ill for peace in Mid-East
Only four US Presidents have won the Nobel Peace Prize: Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Jimmy Carter, and now Barrack Obama.
Teddy Roosevelt was famous for his motto, “Speak softly and carry a big stick”, his leading the charge of up San Juan Hill in the invasion of Cuba, his slaughter of animals in Africa and South America, and his sending the “Great White Fleet” around the world to display American military power.
Woodrow Wilson was famous for being elected on the slogan “He kept us out of the War” and promptly asking Congress to declare war on Germany, sending Amerian troops to die in European trench warfare. On the “peace side” of the equation, he proposed the founding of the ill-fated “League of Nations”, which the US Congress did not ratify and which did nothing to prevent World War II.
Jimmy Carter was known for his feckless, weak response to Iran which held the US embassy hostage — which in the fullness of time is now leading to Iran’s possession of an atomic bomb and threatening the future of Israel. He is also know for his support for such world peace figures such as Hugo Chaves (leftist dictator of Venezuela), Khaleed Mashall (exiled Hamas leader), Yassar Arafat (Palestinian terrorist), Jean-Bertand Aristide (Haitian strongman), Fidel Castro (Cuba dictator), and general anti-US policy.
Barrack Obama, like Carter, has taken an anti-Israel stance and has the strong support of Jimmy Carter regarding US policy. It is not quite evident what Barrack Obama has done so far to merit the Nobel Prize for Peace, other than to have appointed various Marxists among this “czars” and having gone around the world talking down the US.
In general, the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to people who are ineffectual in advancing the cause of world peace, but who demonstrate leftist or other political credentials that endear them to the socialists who award this prize.
This is not a recommendation of what Israel should or should not do, nor a prediction of what they will do, nor what the Iranians will do.
Rather, it is a comment on the increased danger in the Mid-East when the US has a weak, anti-military, perhaps pro-Palestinian President and when the historical US policy of standing on the side of Israel may be abandoned.
Obvious a “wait and see” attitude is extremely dangerous for Israel. But an attack on Iran with conventional weapons that may be hindered by the US and/or Russia is also dangerous.
A recent editorial in the Wall Street Journal even fantasized that the UN, with the backing of the US, might impose sanctions on Israel for not conforming to world anti-nuclear sentiment.
This blog is about financial markets, not war strategy, nor are predictions made regarding the outcome of future conflicts.
The point being made is with reference to uncertainty in the financial markets and the impact of a US president who is beginning to be perceived as weak and indecisive may have on the peace of the world and financial recovery.
Commentaries in the press and on the Internet about what Iran/Israel will or will not do, or what should be done, are becoming increasingly strident.
If Iran gets the bomb (or perhaps, “when” Iran gets the bomb) weapons may not only be transferred to Lebanon or Syria, but also via Afghanistan (after Obama and NATO withdraw troops), to be delivered by land or sea to Europe or North America.
The Obama Presidency seems to have increased uncertainty as to the outlook for war and peace, which, in terms of capital markets, means greater investment risk.
This is not logical at all. Do you garantee the accuracy of the anti-missile shield of israel? Or that Obama will leave office after 3 years? Or that iran having also a good anti-missile shield? Or that there will not be a transfer of the nuclear wapons to Lebanon and Syria(via Iran)
If the people of israel believe this article…they will be in panic and desert israel at once! I am a surgeon. In surgery we believe “open and see”; never “wait and see!!”
thank you someone smart